Bilateral Agreements III, Double Majority, and Water: What the Electricity Agreement Means for Ticino

Research Summary In December 2025, I had offered some critical reflections on the electricity agreement between Switzerland and the European Union. Ten months later, the situation has changed on three fronts. The first is the Federal Council’s message of March 13, 2026. The second is the Council of States’ decision to subject the core package to a double majority vote by the people and the cantons. The third is the drought of summer 2026, which brought Lake Maggiore more than 46 centimeters below the hydrometric zero. What has been scaled back Concessions, water fees, the right of return, and public ownership of facilities remain outside the scope of the agreement, and the EU shares this interpretation. Fears of a competitive bidding process for concessions are not reflected in the text. Universal service at regulated prices protects households. What is confirmed The dynamic application of EU law remains, as do state aid rules—which restrict cantonal energy policy—and a disproportionate regulatory burden on small distributors. The agreement, however, benefits large producers such as AET, as it enhances the flexibility of reservoirs in European markets. A law in flux The dynamic application carries greater weight because European energy law is not stable. The EU is simplifying product legislation and streamlining procedures, but it is actually tightening regulations on the electricity market, as demonstrated by the August 2026 proposal on grid tariffs. Switzerland will be able to help shape these developments, but not co-decide them. The Federal Council counters that this evolution is not automatic: every development must pass through the Joint Committee and internal procedures, including a referendum. The institutional sticking point The electricity agreement is the subject of a separate federal decree, and the Council of States has not yet reviewed it. However, it cannot enter into force without the core package. The cantons’ influence in the double majority system therefore effectively extends to electricity as well. Furthermore, the package does not affect the cantons equally: according to estimates by Ticinus, for border cantons such as Ticino, the impact could reach 60% of cantonal GDP, compared to about 15% for inland cantons. The double majority does not weight the cantons according to their exposure but ensures that each has a say as such. The new front: water Three pressures converge on the Alpine reservoirs: the European market, which wants water retained for the winter; Italy, which demands it in the summer for irrigating the Po Valley; and ecosystems, which require minimum flow rates. The summer of 2026 illustrated the scale of the problem: between May and July, AET’s hydroelectric production was 40–70% below average, and a study by the Polytechnic University of Milan and the CMCC ranks Switzerland among the European economies most affected by multi-year droughts. In July, Piedmont asked Ticino for more water for Lake Verbano. The State Council responded with a “maybe”: reserves were at their lowest levels, and much of the water is tied up in concessions over which the canton has no free disposal. The Lombardy Region has already linked lake navigation to the “joint management of Alpine reservoirs.” Lake Maggiore, unlike Lake Ceresio and Lake Geneva, does not have an international agreement on equal terms regarding its regulation. The Confederation intends to begin drafting such an agreement in 2027. Legal instruments Any reduction in a concession requires full compensation (Art. 43, para. 2, LUFI). Regarding international waters, the Confederation decides in consultation with the cantons concerned and takes into account the interests of the cantons from which the waters originate (Art. 76, paras. 5 and 6, Constitution). The cantons also participate in federal decision-making and in foreign policy matters affecting their interests (Art. 45 and 55 of the Constitution). The Helsinki Convention obligates riparian states to conclude agreements where none yet exist. The Proposal The study proposes a water agreement for the Ticino-Verbano-Ceresio basin, parallel to the Bilateral Agreements III and coordinated with the 2027 negotiations. The agreement should establish preventive rules for water releases in the event of drought and compensate for the water services provided by the reservoirs. It should coordinate lake levels with reservoir filling and involve water utilities and licensing authorities. Finally, it should encompass the entire Alpine system that feeds Lake Verbano, including the Italian reservoirs in the Ossola Valley, so that water releases do not place a burden solely on the Swiss side. Added to this is a cantonal strategy for storage and hydrogen, which is currently lacking even after the scaling back of the PECC. Conditions for Consent In light of the double-majority requirement, the Alpine cantons can make their consent contingent on concrete guarantees in four areas: water management across the entire basin, compensation for cross-border water services, a strategy for energy storage and hydrogen, and effective cantonal participation in shaping future developments of transposed EU law. Ticino should go to the polls with a clear agenda, not merely a “yes” or “no.”

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