Turmoil in the Squares

Turmoil in the Squares Executive report Public order, justice and prevention after the cost-of-living protests of October 2026: Italy, France, Germany and Switzerland compared, with a risk scenario for the OSCE Ministerial Council in Lugano Ticinus – Centro Studi · Locarno, 22 October 2026 Summary of the report “Piazze in tumulto: ordine pubblico, giustizia e prevenzione” (Streets in turmoil: public order, justice and prevention), to which readers are referred for sources and legal references (254 notes). Key findings • After the protests of 17 October, Switzerland’s neighbours responded in three different ways: Italy through criminal law, France through the administrative powers of its prefects, Germany through prevention within the framework of freedom of assembly. Ticino relies on a system that is already in place. • The hardest test is for the courts: many of those arrested are minors, often with no criminal record. Where juvenile judges were able to scale their measures, the response was firm without becoming collective. • Ticino’s critical mass is low: a march of 5,000 people with a violent core would require some 650 officers, more than half of the roughly 1,100 cantonal and municipal police officers. • The criminal duty-lawyer roster (seven lawyers and seven trainee lawyers per week) is sound for ordinary needs, but it is not sized for mass arrests. • For the OSCE Ministerial Council in Lugano (3-4 December 2026) the main risk is not a large authorised march, but the combination of a violent core from outside the canton, scattered actions called on social media, and a police force absorbed by the protection of delegations. Three models and the Swiss way • Italy. The decree-law of 20 October creates the offence of organised violence at demonstrations (Art. 420-bis of the Criminal Code), extends preventive detention of up to 12 hours (fermo di prevenzione) to crowded places, including for 16-year-olds, presumes that minors over 14 are criminally responsible, and sends 500 soldiers to Milan. The 12-hour detention has already been applied on a large scale (174 people held on 18 October), while the Court of Cassation’s research office (Ufficio del Massimario) has questioned its constitutionality. • France. No new legislation: night-time curfews and bans on gatherings within defined perimeters in about a dozen cities, ordered by prefects at a few hours’ notice. • Germany. Demonstrations are notified, not authorised; the day of protest on 31 October is being prepared with a focus on communication and de-escalation. • Ticino and Switzerland. Authorisation by the municipal executive, a ban on face coverings, police custody of up to 24 hours with access to a judge. From 1 January 2027 the new cantonal police act will introduce cantonal threat management and the use of drones at demonstrations; around ten of its provisions have been challenged before the Federal Supreme Court. The cantonal act on public video surveillance, in force since 1 July 2026, rules out facial recognition. Justice under pressure • Milan: 35 minors and 11 adults arrested; 31 of the 35 minors had no criminal record. The juvenile court preferred placement in residential communities and house arrest to the prison custody requested by prosecutors. • France: more than 2,500 people taken into police custody (garde à vue), more than 800 brought before a judge and 149 imprisoned; overloaded courtrooms, releases because time limits had expired, minors held overnight in court cells. Paris lawyers called for “défense massive”, with several lawyers defending each accused. • Germany: after the New Year’s Eve riots in Berlin, 576 proceedings were opened and 343 dropped, mostly because offenders could not be identified. Without individual evidence, prosecutions do not hold up. • Switzerland: the juvenile justice authority combines investigation, judgment and enforcement, an advantage provided it is sized for a sudden influx. In Bern, one year after the demonstration of 11 October 2025 (536 people checked, 101 identified), no penalty orders or final judgments have yet been reported. Lessons from reference cases • Nepal 2025: a social-media ban sparked an uprising that brought down the government; intelligence services had expected 3,000-5,000 protesters. • Peru 2025: the spark was a pension reform perceived as unfair to young people; one death in the streets turned the protest into a political crisis. • Geneva, G7 2026: rules for demonstrations decided more than three weeks in advance, border screening, containment with written safeguards, no serious injuries. Cost: about CHF 30 million, which France did not reimburse. • Ticino: Bellinzona and Camignolo (2025), where Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis was the target of protests, and the protest gathering in Lugano (February 2026) reproduce the report’s dilemmas on a small scale: police accused of doing too little, too much, or of deploying more officers than there were protesters. Critical mass and “fluxcracy” Numbers alone are not enough: France was overwhelmed even with one officer for every nine protesters. What breaks coordination is initial underestimation, fragmentation into multiple hotspots, nightfall and the speed with which crowds are summoned on social media. The “fluxcracy” described by Asma Mhalla pits the time of the flow, measured in minutes, against the time of the law, measured in hours, days and years. The State does not need to win the race for speed; it must ensure that its own time remains the time of the rules. The military: protect, not disperse In Italy the Folgore paratroopers have no judicial police powers; in France the soldiers of Opération Sentinelle only guard buildings; in Germany the Federal Constitutional Court has held that dangers arising from a crowd of demonstrators do not justify the domestic use of military means. In Switzerland the army acts only in a subsidiary support role; deployments of more than 2,000 troops require the approval of the Federal Assembly. Milan in 1898 and Geneva in 1932 recall the price of getting it wrong. Soldiers can free up police officers by guarding fixed sites, but they must not be placed in contact with crowds. Recommendations for Ticino 1. Decide and make public by early November the rules for demonstrations during the OSCE conference, with an authorised route and dialogue with the organisers. 2. Consider with the Confederation targeted border checks, and inform businesses, cross-border workers and schools in good time. 3. Set out in advance the safeguards for any containment of protesters: a legal basis validated by the Public Prosecutor’s Office, priority for minors and vulnerable people, water, blankets and medical care. 4. Reinforce the criminal duty-lawyer roster and the juvenile justice authority for the days of the conference, with a back-up plan agreed between the Bar Association, the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the juvenile justice authority. 5. Separate adults and minors from the very first night and avoid holding minors overnight in cells, save in exceptional cases. 6. Keep soldiers to protection, surveillance and logistics, with no role whatsoever in dispersing demonstrations. 7. Adopt the OSCE/ODIHR Guidelines on Freedom of Peaceful Assembly as the benchmark. 8. Invest in practical civic education: how a judge decides, what a criminal record entails, and why an order from the authorities must be obeyed (Art. 260(2) of the Swiss Criminal Code exempts from punishment those who leave a violent gathering when ordered to do so, provided they have neither committed nor incited violence). 9. Offer the parents of minors who have been arrested parenting support programmes, already possible under existing law through external support ordered by the juvenile court (Art. 13 of the Swiss Juvenile Criminal Law Act) or instructions from the child protection authority (Art. 307 of the Civil Code). The full report in Italian, with a comparative table of the four legal systems, the reference cases and 254 notes, is available on Ticinus. Niccolò Salvioni, independent political and institutional analyst, Centro studi Ticinus, Locarno, 22 October 2026

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